Books by John Aldrich

Is America in the midst of an electoral transformation? What were the sources of Trump’s victory in 2016, and how do they differ from Republican coalitions of the past? Does his victory signal a long-term positive trajectory for Republicans’ chances in presidential elections?Change and Continuity in the 2016 Elections attempts to answer those questions by analyzing and explaining the voting behavior in the most recent election, as well as setting the results in the context of larger trends and patterns in elections studies. New co-author Jamie L. Carson brings years of congressional and election research experience to help this top-notch author team meticulously explain the latest National Election Studies data and discuss its importance and impact. You will critically analyze a variety of variables such as the presidential and congressional elections, voter turnout, and the social forces, party loyalties, and prominent issues that affect voting behavior. You will also walk away with a better understanding of this groundbreaking election and what those results mean for the future of American politics.

Ordinary regression analysis is not appropriate for investigating dichotomous or otherwise `limited' dependent variables, but this volume examines three techniques -- linear probability, probit, and logit models -- which are well-suited for such data. It reviews the linear probability model and discusses alternative specifications of non-linear models. Using detailed examples, Aldrich and Nelson point out the differences among linear, logit, and probit models, and explain the assumptions associated with each.