Books in the Cambridge Series in Statistical and Probabilistic Mathematics series

"This text provides a state-of-the-art treatment of distributional regression, accompanied by real-world examples from diverse areas of application. Maximum likelihood, Bayesian and machine learning approaches are covered in-depth and contrasted, providing an integrated perspective on GAMLSS for researchers in statistics and other data-rich fields"--

"This largely self-contained text introduces discrete probability and its applications, at a level suitable for beginning graduate students in mathematics, computer science, statistics and engineering. Each chapter includes exercises and pointers to the wider literature, covering a wide spectrum of essential techniques and key examples"--

All scientific disciplines prize predictive success. Conventional statistical analyses, however, treat prediction as secondary, instead focusing on modeling and hence estimation, testing, and detailed physical interpretation, tackling these tasks before the predictive adequacy of a model is established. This book outlines a fully predictive approach to statistical problems based on studying predictors; the approach does not require predictors correspond to a model although this important special case is included in the general approach. Throughout, the point is to examine predictive performance before considering conventional inference. These ideas are traced through five traditional subfields of statistics, helping readers to refocus and adopt a directly predictive outlook. The book also considers prediction via contemporary 'black box' techniques and emerging data types and methodologies where conventional modeling is so difficult that good prediction is the main criterion available for evaluating the performance of a statistical method. Well-documented open-source R code in a Github repository allows readers to replicate examples and apply techniques to other investigations.

This second edition explains how computer software is designed to perform the tasks required for sophisticated statistical analysis.

This classic introduction to probability theory for beginning graduate students is a comprehensive treatment concentrating on the results most useful for applications.

An integrated development of models and likelihood that blends theory and practice, suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, researchers and practitioners. Each chapter of this 2003 book contains a wide range of problems and exercises. A library of data sets accompanying the book is available over the web.

For every practising statistician who designs experiments, a coherent framework for the thinking behind good design. Also ideal for advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate courses. Examples, exercises and discussion questions are drawn from a wide range of real applications: from drug development, to agriculture, to manufacturing.

This book uses mathematical arguments to obtain insights into random graphs.

A self-contained graduate-level introduction to the statistical mechanics of disordered systems. In three parts, the book treats basic statistical mechanics; disordered lattice spin systems; and latest developments in the mathematical understanding of mean-field spin glass models. It assumes basic knowledge of classical physics and working knowledge of graduate-level probability theory.

Describes the Bayesian approach to statistics at a level suitable for final year undergraduate and Masters students as well as statistical and interdisciplinary researchers. It is unusual in presenting Bayesian statistics with an emphasis on mainstream statistics, showing how to infer scientific, medical, and social conclusions from numerical data.

This 2004 introduction to ways of modelling phenomena that occur over time is accessible to anyone with a basic knowledge of statistical ideas. Examples from physical, biological and social sciences show how the principles can be put into practice: data sets and R code for these are supplied on author's website.

This user-friendly 2003 book explains the techniques and benefits of semiparametric regression in a concise and modular fashion.

This book provides an accessible introduction to measure theory and stochastic calculus, and develops into an excellent users' guide to filtering. A complete resource for engineers, or anyone with an interest in implementation of filtering techniques. Three chapters concentrate on applications from finance, genetics and population modelling. Also includes exercises.

This detailed introduction to distribution theory uses no measure theory, making it suitable for students in statistics and econometrics and researchers who use statistical methods. Backgrounds in calculus and linear algebra are important, and a course in elementary mathematical analysis useful, but not required. An appendix summarizes the mathematical definitions and results outlined.

Starting around the late 1950s, several research communities began relating the geometry of graphs to stochastic processes on these graphs. This book, twenty years in the making, ties together research in the field, encompassing work on percolation, isoperimetric inequalities, eigenvalues, transition probabilities, and random walks. Written by two leading researchers, the text emphasizes intuition, while giving complete proofs and more than 850 exercises. Many recent developments, in which the authors have played a leading role, are discussed, including percolation on trees and Cayley graphs, uniform spanning forests, the mass-transport technique, and connections on random walks on graphs to embedding in Hilbert space. This state-of-the-art account of probability on networks will be indispensable for graduate students and researchers alike.

Rigorous probabilistic arguments, built on the foundation of measure theory introduced eighty years ago by Kolmogorov, have invaded many fields. Students of statistics, biostatistics, econometrics, finance, and other changing disciplines now find themselves needing to absorb theory beyond what they might have learned in the typical undergraduate, calculus-based probability course. This 2002 book grew from a one-semester course offered for many years to a mixed audience of graduate and undergraduate students who have not had the luxury of taking a course in measure theory. The core of the book covers the basic topics of independence, conditioning, martingales, convergence in distribution, and Fourier transforms. In addition there are numerous sections treating topics traditionally thought of as more advanced, such as coupling and the KMT strong approximation, option pricing via the equivalent martingale measure, and the isoperimetric inequality for Gaussian processes. The book is not just a presentation of mathematical theory, but is also a discussion of why that theory takes its current form. It will be a secure starting point for anyone who needs to invoke rigorous probabilistic arguments and understand what they mean.

Aimed at advanced undergraduate and graduate students in mathematics and related disciplines, this book presents the concepts and results underlying the Bayesian, frequentist and Fisherian approaches, with particular emphasis on the contrasts between them. Computational ideas are explained, as well as basic mathematical theory. Written in a lucid and informal style, this concise text provides both basic material on the main approaches to inference, as well as more advanced material on developments in statistical theory, including: material on Bayesian computation, such as MCMC, higher-order likelihood theory, predictive inference, bootstrap methods and conditional inference. It contains numerous extended examples of the application of formal inference techniques to real data, as well as historical commentary on the development of the subject. Throughout, the text concentrates on concepts, rather than mathematical detail, while maintaining appropriate levels of formality. Each chapter ends with a set of accessible problems.

Derived from extensive teaching experience in Paris, this second edition now includes over 100 exercises in probability. New exercises have been added to reflect important areas of current research in probability theory, including infinite divisibility of stochastic processes, past-future martingales and fluctuation theory. For each exercise the authors provide detailed solutions as well as references for preliminary and further reading. There are also many insightful notes to motivate the student and set the exercises in context. Students will find these exercises extremely useful for easing the transition between simple and complex probabilistic frameworks. Indeed, many of the exercises here will lead the student on to frontier research topics in probability. Along the way, attention is drawn to a number of traps into which students of probability often fall. This book is ideal for independent study or as the companion to a course in advanced probability theory.

In nonparametric and high-dimensional statistical models, the classical Gauss-Fisher-Le Cam theory of the optimality of maximum likelihood estimators and Bayesian posterior inference does not apply, and new foundations and ideas have been developed in the past several decades. This book gives a coherent account of the statistical theory in infinite-dimensional parameter spaces. The mathematical foundations include self-contained 'mini-courses' on the theory of Gaussian and empirical processes, on approximation and wavelet theory, and on the basic theory of function spaces. The theory of statistical inference in such models - hypothesis testing, estimation and confidence sets - is then presented within the minimax paradigm of decision theory. This includes the basic theory of convolution kernel and projection estimation, but also Bayesian nonparametrics and nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation. In the final chapter, the theory of adaptive inference in nonparametric models is developed, including Lepski's method, wavelet thresholding, and adaptive inference for self-similar functions.

Exact statistical inference may be employed in diverse fields of science and technology. As problems become more complex and sample sizes become larger, mathematical and computational difficulties can arise that require the use of approximate statistical methods. Such methods are justified by asymptotic arguments but are still based on the concepts and principles that underlie exact statistical inference. With this in perspective, this book presents a broad view of exact statistical inference and the development of asymptotic statistical inference, providing a justification for the use of asymptotic methods for large samples. Methodological results are developed on a concrete and yet rigorous mathematical level and are applied to a variety of problems that include categorical data, regression, and survival analyses. This book is designed as a textbook for advanced undergraduate or beginning graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, or applied statistics but may also be used as a reference for academic researchers.

This eagerly awaited textbook covers everything the graduate student in probability wants to know about Brownian motion, as well as the latest research in the area. Starting with the construction of Brownian motion, the book then proceeds to sample path properties like continuity and nowhere differentiability. Notions of fractal dimension are introduced early and are used throughout the book to describe fine properties of Brownian paths. The relation of Brownian motion and random walk is explored from several viewpoints, including a development of the theory of Brownian local times from random walk embeddings. Stochastic integration is introduced as a tool and an accessible treatment of the potential theory of Brownian motion clears the path for an extensive treatment of intersections of Brownian paths. An investigation of exceptional points on the Brownian path and an appendix on SLE processes, by Oded Schramm and Wendelin Werner, lead directly to recent research themes.

This book is about the statistical principles behind the design of effective experiments and focuses on the practical needs of applied statisticians and experimenters engaged in design, implementation and analysis. Emphasising the logical principles of statistical design, rather than mathematical calculation, the authors demonstrate how all available information can be used to extract the clearest answers to many questions. The principles are illustrated with a wide range of examples drawn from real experiments in medicine, industry, agriculture and many experimental disciplines. Numerous exercises are given to help the reader practise techniques and to appreciate the difference that good design can make to an experimental research project. Based on Roger Mead's excellent Design of Experiments, this new edition is thoroughly revised and updated to include modern methods relevant to applications in industry, engineering and modern biology. It also contains seven new chapters on contemporary topics, including restricted randomisation and fractional replication.

The classical probability theory initiated by Kolmogorov and its quantum counterpart, pioneered by von Neumann, were created at about the same time in the 1930s, but development of the quantum theory has trailed far behind. Although highly appealing, the quantum theory has a steep learning curve, requiring tools from both probability and analysis and a facility for combining the two viewpoints. This book is a systematic, self-contained account of the core of quantum probability and quantum stochastic processes for graduate students and researchers. The only assumed background is knowledge of the basic theory of Hilbert spaces, bounded linear operators, and classical Markov processes. From there, the book introduces additional tools from analysis, and then builds the quantum probability framework needed to support applications to quantum control and quantum information and communication. These include quantum noise, quantum stochastic calculus, stochastic quantum differential equations, quantum Markov semigroups and processes, and large-time asymptotic behavior of quantum Markov semigroups.

In fields such as biology, medical sciences, sociology, and economics researchers often face the situation where the number of available observations, or the amount of available information, is sufficiently small that approximations based on the normal distribution may be unreliable. Theoretical work over the last quarter-century has led to new likelihood-based methods that lead to very accurate approximations in finite samples, but this work has had limited impact on statistical practice. This book illustrates by means of realistic examples and case studies how to use the new theory, and investigates how and when it makes a difference to the resulting inference. The treatment is oriented towards practice and comes with code in the R language (available from the web) which enables the methods to be applied in a range of situations of interest to practitioners. The analysis includes some comparisons of higher order likelihood inference with bootstrap or Bayesian methods.

Point-to-point vs hub-and-spoke. Questions of network design are real and involve many billions of dollars. Yet little is known about optimising design - nearly all work concerns optimising flow assuming a given design. This foundational book tackles optimisation of network structure itself, deriving comprehensible and realistic design principles. With fixed material cost rates, a natural class of models implies the optimality of direct source-destination connections, but considerations of variable load and environmental intrusion then enforce trunking in the optimal design, producing an arterial or hierarchical net. Its determination requires a continuum formulation, which can however be simplified once a discrete structure begins to emerge. Connections are made with the masterly work of Bendsoe and Sigmund on optimal mechanical structures and also with neural, processing and communication networks, including those of the Internet and the World Wide Web. Technical appendices are provided on random graphs and polymer models and on the Klimov index.

Many electronic and acoustic signals can be modelled as sums of sinusoids and noise. However, the amplitudes, phases and frequencies of the sinusoids are often unknown and must be estimated in order to characterise the periodicity or near-periodicity of a signal and consequently to identify its source. This book presents and analyses several practical techniques used for such estimation. The problem of tracking slow frequency changes over time of a very noisy sinusoid is also considered. Rigorous analyses are presented via asymptotic or large sample theory, together with physical insight. The book focuses on achieving extremely accurate estimates when the signal to noise ratio is low but the sample size is large. Each chapter begins with a detailed overview, and many applications are given. Matlab code for the estimation techniques is also included. The book will thus serve as an excellent introduction and reference for researchers analysing such signals.

Recent years have seen an explosion in the volume and variety of data collected in scientific disciplines from astronomy to genetics and industrial settings ranging from Amazon to Uber. This graduate text equips readers in statistics, machine learning, and related fields to understand, apply, and adapt modern methods suited to large-scale data.

The data sciences are moving fast, and probabilistic methods are both the foundation and a driver. This highly motivated text brings beginners up to speed quickly and provides working data scientists with powerful new tools. Ideal for a basic second course in probability with a view to data science applications, it is also suitable for self-study.

Written by top researchers, this self-contained text is the authoritative account of Bayesian nonparametrics, a nearly universal framework for inference in statistics and machine learning, with practical use in all areas of science, including economics and biostatistics. Appendices with prerequisites and numerous exercises support its use for graduate courses.

Network science is one of the fastest growing areas in science and business. This classroom-tested, self-contained book is designed for master's-level courses and provides a rigorous treatment of random graph models for networks, featuring many examples of real-world networks for motivation and numerous exercises to build intuition and experience.