Books in the Cancer Treatment and Research series

The entire world was taken by surprise when 1990 brought an end to Soviet communism in Europe and thus a genuine end to World War II. The fact that these developments surprised not only the leaders and the people of the countries concerned, but also scholars is an extraordinary challenge to the students of Soviet-type economics. In the academic world, where predictive force is one of the key indicators of a successful theory, this weak performance calls into question the validity of earlier findings and interpretations. Something was wrong in the general framework. Socialist Investment Cycles offers an explanation of this failure. Socialist Investment Cycles is the first monograph in English on investment fluctuations in planned economies, a chapter in history. While providing a broad overview of the literature on socialist investment cycles, as well as a quantitative description of the actual processes, the author puts forth a new framework for understanding investment fluctuations. In this framework socialist planners were able to adjust the volume of investments without risking the fulfillment of politically more sensitive target variables. Socialist Investment Cycles encompasses all thirty-five countries which were ruled by communism and is the first study to penetrate deeply into the data problem, country by country, and series by series. Socialist Investment Cycles has been written after the collapse of Soviet-type communism in Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the countries of Asia and Africa. It thus offers a retrospective view on both the theory and practice of socialist economies.

1. Introduction to Bayesian Methods in Reliability.- 1. Why Bayesian Methods?.- 1.1 Sparse data.- 1.2 Decision problems.- 2. Bayes' Theorem.- 3. Examples from a Safety Study on Gas transmission Pipelines.- 3.1 Estimating the probability of the development of a big hole.- 3.2 Estimating the leak rate of a gas transmission pipeline.- 4. Conclusions.- References.- 2. An Overview of the Bayesian Approach.- 1. Background.- 2. Probability Concepts.- 3. Notation.- 4. Reliability Concepts and Models.- 5. Forms of Data.- 6. Statistical Problems.- 7. Review of Non-Bayesian Statistical Methods.- 8. Desiderata for Decision-Oriented Statistical Methodology.- 9. Decision-Making.- 10. Degrees of Belief as Probabilities.- 11. Bayesian Statistical Philosophy.- 12. A Simple Illustration of Bayesian Learning.- 13. Bayesian Approaches to Typical Statistical Questions.- 14. Assessment of Prior Densities.- 15. Bayesian Inference for some Univariate Probability Models.- 16. Approximate Analysis under Great Prior Uncertainty.- 17. Problems Involving many Parameters: Empirical Bayes.- 18. Numerical Methods for Practical Bayesian Statistics.- References.- 3. Reliability Modelling and Estimation.- 1. Non-Repairable Systems.- 1.1 Introduction.- 1.2 Describing reliability.- 1.3 Failure time distributions.- 2. Estimation.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 Classical methods.- 2.3 Bayesian methods.- 3. Reliability estimation.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Binomial sampling.- 3.3 Pascal sampling.- 3.4 Poisson sampling.- 3.5 Hazard rate estimation.- References.- 4. Repairable Systems and Growth Models.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Good as New: the Renewal Process.- 3. Estimation.- 4. The Poisson Process.- 5. Bad as old: the Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process.- 6. Classical Estimation.- 7. Exploratory Analysis.- 8. The Duane Model.- 9. Bayesian Analysis.- References.- 5. The Use of Expert Judgement in Risk Assessment.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Independence Preservation.- 3. The Quality of Experts' Judgement.- 4. Calibration Sets and Seed Variables.- 5. A Classical Model.- 6. Bayesian Models.- 7. Some Experimental Results.- References.- 6. Forecasting Software Reliability.- 1. Introduction.- 2. The Software Reliability Growth Problem.- 3. Some Software Reliability Growth Models.- 3.1 Jelinski and Moranda (JM).- 3.2 Bayesian Jelinski-Moranda (BJM).- 3.3 Littlewood (L).- 3.4 Littlewood and Verrall (LV).- 3.5 Keiller and Littlewood (KL).- 3.6 Weibull order statistics (W).- 3.7 Duane (D).- 3.8 Goel-Okumoto (GO).- 3.9 Littlewood NHPP (LNHPP).- 4. Examples of Use.- 5. Analysis of Predictive Quality.- 5.1 The u-plot.- 5.2 The y-plot, and scatter plot of u's.- 5.3 Measures of 'noise'.- 5.3.1 Braun statistic.- 5.3.2 Median variability.- 5.3.3 Rate variability.- 5.4 Prequential likelihood.- 6. Examples of Predictive Analysis.- 7. Adapting and Combining Predictions; Future Directions.- 8 Summary and Conclusions.- Acknowledgements.- References.- References.- Author index.

Session I - Multidisciplinary Studies.- Field data versus modelling. Why environmental sciences need both.- Field testing of transport models for organic chemicals in surface and subsurface water.- The transport and fate of organic pollutants in rivers. II - Field measurement and modelling for styrene, xylenes, dichlorobenzenes and 4-phenyl-dodecane.- Environmental applications of chemometrics - envirometrics.- Session II - Partitioning of Organic Micropollutants in the Aquatic Environment.- Sorption kinetics of micropollutants from suspended particles: experimental observations and modelling.- Bioaccumulation kinetics: experimental data and modelling.- Bioaccumulation of nonylphenol in caged mussels in an industrial coastal area on the Swedish West coast.- Transport and distribution of DDT and PCB in the upper Sado estuary, and accumulation in oysters: importance of runoff.- Herbicide losses in runoff from the agricultural area of Thessaloniki in Thermaikos Gulf, N. Greece.- Session III - Novel Analytical Techniques in Environmental Chemistry.- The role of capillary GC - Hyphenated techniques in water analysis.- Supercritical fluid extraction of chlorinated compounds and other pollutants.- Application of AMD to the determination of crop-protection agents in drinking water - Fundamentals and method.- Session IV - Monitoring Micropollutant.- Liquid chromatographic strategies for the determination of pesticides in the aquatic environment.- Multiresidue analysis of pesticides in drinking water and related samples.- Chemical Analysis as a cyclic procedure (a chain is only as strong as its weakest link).- Session V - Degradation of Organic Micropollutants During Field Conditions.- Microbial degradation of mixtures of aromatic compounds at low concentrations under aerobic conditions.- Microbial aspects of the behaviour of chlorinated compounds during soil passage.- Session VI - Reclamation of Polluted Ground Water.- In situ biorestoration of a subsoil, contaminated with gasoline.- Bioremediation of chlorophenol-contaminated ground water.- Synergic behaviour of microorganisms able to degrade halogenated organic substances.- Session VII- Chemical and Photochemical Oxidation.- Photochemical processes in water and their stimulation for the degradation of organic micropollutants.- Removal of nitrogenous pesticides by direct and radical type ozonation.- The effect of ozonation and biological filtration on the removal of cyanobacterial toxins.- Session VIII - Future of Environmental Chemistry.- Global aspects of the environmental fate of organic micropollutants.- Environmental problems in a long term perspective.- EC policy in the field of water.- Poster Session I - Analytical Methodologies.- Carboxylic biointermediates of LAS and NPEO: synthesis, characterization and RP-HPLC determination.- Dual Column chromatography in a standard gas chromatograph.- Identification of volatile organic compounds in urban and industrial effluents discharged at Sado estuary.- The evaluation of three solvent extraction techniques for the isolation of n-herbicides from drinking-and surface water.- Two interlaboratory studies on volatile organic hydrocarbons.- Determination of nitroaromatics in water using substance specific detection modes.- HPLC with Diode-Array-Detection - a new multi-method in the determination of pesticides in drinking water.- GC determination of chlorophenoxy acids in minor polluted waters.- Multi-component analysis of pesticides in water samples by HPLC. Rapid extraction and neutral/acid fractionation by a carbopack cartridge.- FAB mass spectrometric applications to the study of non volatile organic compounds in water.- Determination of organotin miticides in water and vegetables.- Field measurement of volatile organic chemicals by membrane inlet mass spectometry.- Extraction and analysis of organic micropollutants in river water.- Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.- Identification and behaviour of iodinated haloform medicinal odor.- C...