Adversarial Risk Analysis

This book shows decision makers how to build Bayesian models for the strategic calculation of their opponents, enabling decision makers to maximize their expected utility or minimize their expected loss. Many examples throughout illustrate the application of the ARA approach to a variety of games and strategic situations. A case study based on a real application in railway security provides a blueprint for how to perform ARA in similar security situations. In addition, multi-agent influence diagrams help readers visualize complex information structures.