Ensemble Model for Forecasting Infectious Diseases

The Vector borne diseases have become the most widespread diseases worldwide, making them a threat to the society. According to a report by WHO the vector borne diseases like malaria, dengue and chikungunya are one of the most common, epidemic diseases in most cities and states. Many scientists to develop new models for forecasting as well as the prediction of number of cases for these deadly epidemic diseases by various regression models. Every year there are thousands of deaths due to these vector borne diseases.

Vector-borne diseases are human illness caused by parasites, viruses and bacteria which are transmitted by mosquitoes, sand flies, bugs, mites, nails and lice. Every year there are more than 70,000 deaths from diseases such as dengue, malaria, yellow fever and Japanese encephalitis globally. The major vector borne diseases account 17% of all the infectious diseases. The burdens of these diseases are high especially in the tropical and subtropical areas and they affect the poorest population. Since 2014, a major outbreak of dengue, malaria and Zika virus have affected the majority of populations in South Asia and overwhelmed the health systems in various countries. The determination of vector borne diseases is determined by complex demographic, environmental and social factors. Global trade, travel, unplanned urbanization and climate change can impact on pathogen transmission, making transmission season longer or causing diseases to emerge in Countries where they were previously unknown.